MIAMI -- Hurricane Milton is forecast to become a Category 5 storm, although it's expected to weaken before Wednesday landfall. Lake Okeechobee has also been placed under a Hurricane Watch.

Here is the 11 a.m. update.

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WTNT34 KNHC 071453

TCPAT4

BULLETIN

Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 10

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024

1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...MILTON CONTINUING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY..

...FORECAST TO BECOME A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...21.7N 91.7W

ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO

ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Lake Okeechobee.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Celestun to Rio Lagartos

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche

* Campeche to south of Celestun

* Florida Gulf coast from Chokoloskee to the mouth of the Suwanee

River, including Tampa Bay

* Dry Tortugas

* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Florida Gulf coast from Flamingo northward to the mouth of the

Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Rio Lagartos to Cancun

* Campeche to south of Celestun

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Florida Gulf coast from Flamingo to south of Chokoloskee

* Florida Gulf coast north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to

Indian Pass

* Lower, Middle, and Upper Florida Keys, including Florida Bay

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued

36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of

tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside

preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life

and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours

before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force

winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or

dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the

Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas

should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and

warnings will likely be issued this afternoon.

For storm information specific to your area in the United

States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please

monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service

forecast office. For storm information specific to your area

outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by

your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Milton was

located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 91.7 West. Milton is

moving toward the east-southeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). An eastward

to east-southeastward motion is forecast through tonight, followed

by a turn toward the east and northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday.

On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move near or just

north of the Yucatan Peninsula today and Tuesday, then cross the

eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida

Peninsula by Wednesday.

Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft

indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near

155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a category 4

hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Milton is

forecast to become a category 5 hurricane later today and become a

large hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles

(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 933 mb (27.55 inches)

based on Air Force Reserve dropsonde data.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key Messages for Hurricane Milton can be found in the Tropical

Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header

WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4

to 6 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the

Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the

surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause

normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters

moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the

following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if

the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...8-12 ft

Tampa Bay...8-12 ft

Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft

Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...5-10 ft

Charlotte Harbor...5-10 ft

Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft

Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to

the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be

accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding

depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,

and can vary greatly over short distances. For information

specific to your area, please see products issued by your local

National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge

inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm

Surge Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals

up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida

Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings

the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along

with the potential for moderate to major river flooding.

Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with

isolated totals around 6 inches across northern portions of the

Yucatan Peninsula.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with

Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm

Total Rainfall Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk

graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in

Mexico beginning late today or tonight, with tropical storm

conditions expected to begin early this afternoon. Hurricane

conditions are possible in the watch areas in Mexico beginning

tonight and Tuesday, and tropical storm conditions are expected in

the tropical storm warning area beginning later today. Hurricane

conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area in Florida on

Wednesday, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the

Tropical Storm Watch area on Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to continue

to affect much of the whole Gulf Coast within the next day or two,

and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current

conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.

Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$

Forecaster Blake

Jeff 'Defo' DeForrest